Wednesday Seminar Series: Dr. Jean-Paul Carvalho, University of Oxford
Zero-sum Thinking, the Evolution of Effort-Suppressing Beliefs, and Economic Development
Wednesday, January 24, 2024 12:00 PM to 1:15 PM EST
Carow Hall, 1
The Wednesday Seminar Series, now over 40 years old, invites scholars from around the world to share their work in a formal lecture, which is followed by a rigorous question and answer session. The Spring 2024 seminars will be hosted by Dr. Jonathan Schulz and coordinated by Lisa Hill-Corley. All papers made available will be posted on this site for downloading. For more information, call the Center: (703) 993-2316.
In person seminars will be held from 12 - 1:15 PM in Carow Hall, which is on George Mason University's Fairfax campus.
A light lunch for seminar participants will be available at 11:30 AM.
Click here to see a list of our Spring 2024 schedule of speakers.
Abstract:
We study the evolution of belief systems that suppress productive effort. These include concerns about the envy of others, beliefs in the importance of luck for success, disdain for competitive effort, and traditional supernatural beliefs in witchcraft or the evil eye. We show that such demotivating beliefs evolve when interactions are zero-sum in nature, i.e., the gains for one individual tend to come at the expense of another. Within a population, our model predicts a divergence between material and subjective payoffs, with material welfare being hump-shaped and subjective well-being being strictly decreasing in demotivating beliefs. Across societies, our model predicts a positive relationship between zero-sum thinking and demotivating beliefs) and a negative relationship between zero-sum thinking (or demotivating beliefs and both material welfare and subjective well-being. We test the predictions of the model using data from two samples in the Democratic Republic of Congo and from the World Values Survey. In the DRC, we find a positive relationship between zero-sum thinking and the presence of demotivating beliefs, such as concerns about envy and beliefs in witchcraft. Globally, zero sum thinking is associated with skepticism about the importance of hard work for success, lower income, less educational attainment, less financial security, and lower life satisfaction. Comparing individuals in the same zero-sum environment, we observe the divergence between material outcomes and subjective well-being predicted by our model.
