Essays on Municipal Population Growth in North American and European Economic History

This dissertation examines the dynamics of municipal population growth (in settlements and cities) set in different periods of history. Contested property rights, spurred by a surge in settler population growth, turned violent in colonial New England between English settlers and neighboring Algonquians. Craft guild activity in city centers served as a nexus for early urbanization in late medieval and early modern Europe. Changes to local governance structures in 10 Central European city states corresponded with the introduction of local public bonds and changes to their borrowing costs.

 

The first chapter extends and empirically tests the “raid or trade” model for three periods of military conflict in colonial New England. Using probate data for 72 settlements in New England to measure the growth of farmers as a proxy for colonial territorial growth, I find a general pattern that English settlements with higher rates of population and territorial growth experienced more violent conflict during King Philip’s War. The same relationship between territorial growth and violent conflict was not as strong for conflicts that preceded and succeeded King Philip’s War.

 

The second chapter, coauthored with Dr. Noel Johnson, explores the relationship between craft guild presence and urban dynamics in Western Europe from 1000 to 1800 AD. We construct a panel of guild activity and urban population for 1,780 Western European cities and find that cities with craft guilds were larger and grew faster than cities without guilds. Guilds raised the steady-state population equilibrium of cities by 70% and were associated with 7-9% higher rates of urban growth per century. Guild presence had a stronger relationship with city size and growth during the late medieval period compared to the pre-industrial period following the Black Death.

 

Chapter three outlines the method used to construct the panel of European urban populations and guild presence indicators referenced in Chapter 2. It describes the process for collecting and aggregating historical sources on craft guild activity for 750 Western European cities during the period 1000-1800 AD. I begin with summarizing the guilds databases compiled by Sheilagh Ogilvie and then describe the methods used to research, document, and assess additional sources of craft guild activity. Illustrations of secondary source historical documentation of urban guild activities are provided. They are categorized by a subjective measure on the reliability of the historical sources. Finally, comparisons and robustness checks on the reliability of the historical documentation validate the two main specifications - between guild presence and city growth - featured in chapter two.

 

Chapter four briefly explores the relationship between guild representation in city assemblies and the city government’s capacity to borrow. City-states with higher measures of craft guild activity and guild assembly representation had lower nominal interest rates on their public bonds. To test the relationship between varying political institutions and the cost of borrowing, I summarize and compare the levels of guild activity, the political characteristics of assemblies, and the nominal interest rates of municipal bonds for 10 Central European cities from 1300-1700 AD.